Dunya Analytics warns Super El Niño could hit global food supply through 2028

Dunya Analytics says the 2026/2027 Super El Niño is already cutting crop yields and exposing major exporters to drought risk across several regions. The company warns food prices could rise 9% and stay elevated into 2028 as sourcing strategies based on switching origins may fail.

Why it matters: - Dunya Analytics says the 2026/2027 Super El Niño could trigger severe food supply shocks across major exporting regions. - The company warns global food prices could rise 9%, nearly double the impact of a standard El Niño. - Price pressure could persist into 2028, raising procurement costs for food makers, retailers and commodities buyers.

What happened: - Dunya Analytics issued the warning on Oct. 14, 2026, saying the climate event that began in June 2026 is already cutting crop yields. - The company says the Super El Niño is shaping up to be one of the strongest ever recorded. - CEO Megan Pillsbury said traditional mitigation strategies, such as shifting between origins, may fail because multiple top exporters are being hit at the same time.

The details: - Dunya Analytics says its spatial modelling shows localized and widespread agricultural droughts are compromising key growing zones in Africa, Latin America, South East Asia and Eastern Europe. - The company says it cross-referenced crop cultivation data with historical El Niño drought exposure datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. - In Southeast Asia, Thailand faces severe exposure across palm oil, rice and sugar cane, while Vietnam faces high risks for rice, coffee and tea. - In West Africa, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have major cocoa-growing regions in high-risk drought hotspots. - Dunya Analytics says past El Niño events helped drive cocoa prices sharply higher after harvest failures in West Africa. - The company says wheat and barley production zones in the U.S., Russia and Ukraine also show significant localized exposure because of coastal and topographical weather patterns. - Dunya Analytics says even standard El Niño cycles have moved commodity prices sharply, including a 22% rise in crude palm oil during 1997/1998 and a 140% surge in global sugar prices during 2015/2016. - The company says its exposure assessment tools map climate and nature risks across more than 170 crops globally.

Between the lines: - The warning suggests climate risk is shifting from a regional issue to a multi-origin sourcing problem. - If several exporters face drought at the same time, buyers may have fewer replacement suppliers than they expect. - That raises the risk of faster price spikes and longer-lasting inflation than companies typically plan for.

What's next: - Dunya Analytics is urging food manufacturers, retailers and agricultural commodities buyers to audit supply chain exposure at the regional level. - The company is offering access to its complete risk index map and a complimentary climate exposure consultation through its announcement. - Companies will likely need to revisit sourcing, inventory and procurement plans if drought exposure spreads further through 2027.

The bottom line: - The Super El Niño may become a global test of food supply resilience, not just a weather event.