Sweden Warns Russia–NATO Conflict Could Emerge in Near Future
The paper, endorsed by the Swedish government and all parliamentary parties, describes Russia as a “long-term threat” and argues that Moscow could attempt to test NATO unity and the credibility of Article 5 under what it calls favorable political conditions, though it does not specify what those conditions might be.
The report also claims that Russia could engage in hostilities even without what it describes as a traditional military balance of power. Russia has repeatedly rejected speculation about any planned attack on NATO, calling such claims unfounded.
It further highlights increasing tensions within the alliance, noting a growing divide between the United States and European NATO members. While acknowledging that Washington remains central to Sweden’s security, the document suggests that this relationship is evolving and calls for deeper cooperation within the European Union.
The report reiterates Sweden’s strong support for Ukraine as a core element of its security policy. Sweden, which joined NATO in 2024 following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, has become one of Kyiv’s key military supporters, including recent pledges of up to 16 JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets and plans to sell an additional 20 aircraft.
It also notes broader European rearmament trends, citing Sweden’s increased defense spending in 2026 to 175 billion SEK (about $18.4 billion), an 18% rise from the previous year, bringing military expenditure to 2.8% of GDP.
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