AGP Executive Report

Aviation Disruption: EL AL will suspend Tel Aviv–Moscow flights for the coming days as Russia-Ukraine tensions and regional aviation incidents worsen, with a reassessment next week. Energy Under Fire: Ukraine struck Russia’s oil infrastructure again, hitting a Krasnodar oil depot and two Ufa refineries, while drone debris sparked a fire at the Poltavskaya depot; officials also reported attacks on Crimea and other regions. Air-Defense Shift: Zelenskyy says Russia is moving air defenses to protect Moscow, Valdai and the Kerch Bridge as drones hit deeper inside the country. Fuel Crunch Fallout: Rising Russian fuel prices may spill into Kazakhstan’s inflation, and Russia is reportedly in talks to import gasoline from Kazakhstan and even India as refinery output is hit. War Costs: Ukraine’s General Staff claims Russia lost about 1,270 troops and major equipment over the past day, as strikes continue across the front. Regional Politics: Moscow says it is waiting for Armenia’s final CSTO decision on whether it stays or chooses another path. Tech & Industry: United Engine says serial production of PD-8 engines for the Yakovlev SJ-100 has begun after certification, with deliveries expected in coming months.

Ukraine War—Civilian Toll: Russian strikes injured 15 people in Sumy, including three children, as drones hit gas stations, a cinema in Konotop, and civilian infrastructure; in Zaporizhzhia, a utility strike left five injured. Ukraine War—Energy & Crimea Pressure: Ukraine says its “carefully calculated” Crimea operation aims to force Russia to choose peace, while Moscow redeploys air defenses to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge as Kyiv targets gas and satellite communications sites. Fuel Crisis—Restrictions Spread: Russia imposed gasoline and diesel sales limits across 22 regions, with Crimea and Sevastopol suspending sales, as refinery disruptions deepen shortages. Diplomacy & Sanctions: EU ambassadors agreed to extend sectoral sanctions on Russia for 12 months. Mobilization Concerns: Russia’s contract recruitment slump is driving internal debate over an unpopular October 2026 mobilization wave. Opposition Crackdown: Yabloko deputy Maxim Kruglov was sentenced to seven years for anti-war Telegram posts. Aviation & Industry: Putin claimed Russia achieved full import substitution for sanctioned aircraft components. Global Security Rhetoric: Kremlin says nuclear deterrence is the “only” safeguard against global war as New START remains expired.

Ukraine War & Energy: Ukrainian drones and missiles hit Russia’s Orenburg gas processing complex and helium plant, while Sevastopol in annexed Crimea lost power after strikes on energy infrastructure; Kyiv also targeted satellite communications sites and other facilities deep inside Russia, as Moscow reported large drone interceptions. Crimea Logistics: Russia is building a new causeway-style crossing near Henichesk to restore supply routes between occupied Kherson and Crimea after drone strikes damaged bridges. Moscow Drone Disruptions: A drone attack near Moscow briefly disrupted airport operations, with officials saying dozens of drones were shot down. Fuel Crunch: Russia is weighing a full diesel export ban as shortages and price pressure spread, with some regions imposing fuel sales limits. Information Warfare: Leaked plans tied to Russia’s “Project 2026” describe efforts to shape how people and AI systems access political information, including Wikipedia-style sites and phony think tanks. Diplomacy & Pressure: Dmitry Peskov said Armenia will ultimately choose EAEU membership, while Lavrov argued Ukraine can’t carry out attacks without UK-US targeting help. Regional Security: Poland warned Russia may stage a false-flag attack on its own territory to justify escalation. China Ties: A Chinese PLA Navy task force arrived in Vladivostok for a goodwill visit.

Armenia-EU vs EEU Pressure: Moscow’s Zakharova warned Yerevan it can’t keep using Russia for money while pushing EU accession, pointing to recent Russian import bans tied to Armenia’s June 7 election. Armenian Clergy Drafted: Armenian priests serving in Russia were called up for 25-day military duty and barred from leaving, disrupting parish work and fueling tensions with Pashinian’s church crackdown. Sanctions Court Ruling: Russia’s Supreme Court reviewed sanctions-related commercial disputes, saying enforcement can be denied on public-policy grounds. Fuel Crisis at Home: After Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil infrastructure, motorists reportedly fought in petrol queues; Russia is also considering a full diesel export ban and tightening regional fuel sales. Ukraine War, Diplomacy Clash: Russia again said the US is no longer an “objective mediator,” while Putin reiterated readiness for Ukraine peace talks based on Istanbul. Crimea Under Strain: Satellite imagery and reports highlighted damage and fortifications around the Crimean Bridge as Kyiv steps up pressure on logistics and energy. Human Rights: The ECHR found Russia responsible for torture and the killing of Georgian POWs from the 2008 war. Defense and Economy: Putin said Russia is upgrading its nuclear triad; Shoigu said BRICS advisers agreed on shared reserve funds for mutual help.

Black Sea Tensions: A Russian drone strike hit the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Victress near Chornomorsk, killing an Egyptian crew member and injuring two Turkish sailors, as Ankara warned both sides to de-escalate to protect civilian navigation. Diplomacy & Prisoners: South Korea said it will accept all North Korean POWs captured by Ukraine if they choose Seoul, while Russia and Ukraine may hold another prisoner exchange after a reported school strike in Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine War, On the Ground: Russia launched missile and drone attacks across Kharkiv and other regions, with civilian casualties reported, as Ukraine continues to press for direct talks while warning patience is not limitless. Energy Pressure: World Bank data shows global gas flaring hit a six-year high in 2025, with Russia and Iran driving the rise, while Russia’s fuel strain worsens in parts of Siberia and Crimea amid strikes on oil infrastructure. Sanctions & Economy: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted Russia’s macro stability is “absolutely guaranteed,” even as Kyiv School of Economics warns wartime spending and structural weaknesses are catching up. EU Security Debate: The European Parliament backed adapting transport infrastructure for military mobility, signaling deeper deterrence planning as the war drags on. Legal Fallout: The ECHR ruled Russia violated rights in a 2008 Georgia–Russia war case involving Georgian servicemen, ordering compensation. Regional Outreach: BRICS marked its 20th anniversary in Moscow, with diplomats from member and partner states gathering for talks on resilience, energy security, and supply chains.

Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Missile Industry: Ukraine says it hit a Voronezh plant making missile electronics, with the governor reporting five dead and dozens injured, as black smoke rose from damaged production sites. Donbas Frontline Pressure: Russian troops reportedly infiltrated Kostyantynivka in Donetsk, raising fears of a push toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk while thousands flee. Belarus War-Prep Signals: A Belarus opposition-linked cabinet report warns Lukashenko may be moving closer to Russia’s war, citing constitutional and military shifts. NATO Alarm in Moscow: A senior lawmaker floated compulsory military training for children from fifth grade, arguing Russia must prepare for conflict with NATO. Fuel Crunch Hits Aviation: With jet fuel exports restricted and supplies tightening, light aircraft operators in Russia are testing automobile gasoline as aviation fuel availability worsens. EU-Russia Talks, No Ultimatums: Moscow says it’s open to dialogue with Europe but rejects threats, as EU officials weigh restarting communication channels. Crimea Fuel Restrictions: Reports continue of halted or limited public fuel sales in Crimea amid strikes and supply strain. Bank of Russia Rules Update: The central bank outlined new approaches for regulating subordinated bank instruments, aiming to strengthen capital recovery under stress.

Ukraine–Russia War Escalation: Ukraine pressed strikes on occupied Crimea and logistics, prompting Russia-installed authorities to suspend civilian fuel sales and impose emergency restrictions after attacks on fuel infrastructure. Moscow Drone Pressure: Nearly 60 drones were reportedly shot down heading toward Moscow, with airports briefly closing before reopening. Black Sea Shipping Under Fire: Russia attacked foreign-flagged cargo ships in the Black Sea; a Turkish-owned Panama-flagged vessel fire killed an Egyptian crew member, while other ships were damaged. Humanitarian Toll: A Russian drone strike in Sumy killed three family members, including a 13-year-old boy. Security Operations: Ukraine’s SSU detained alleged FSB agents planning a downtown Kyiv attack. Energy & Trade Signals: Saudi Arabia remained a top buyer of Russian fuel oil and VGO in May, even as exports fell amid infrastructure disruptions from strikes. Sanctions & Corporate Scrutiny: Nestlé launched an internal probe after advertising on a sanctioned Georgian TV channel tied to Russian propaganda. Labor Recruitment Scandal: Kenya’s Russia recruitment case deepened after allegations that officials helped force civilians into fighting in Ukraine. Regional Diplomacy: Brazil’s ambassador said it aims to shift bilateral payments with Russia toward national currencies.

Fuel Crisis in Crimea: Russia halted fuel sales to civilians and non-state businesses in occupied Crimea after fresh Ukrainian drone strikes hit oil infrastructure, with officials citing deaths and dozens of injuries and reserving petrol for state needs. Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia: Kyiv says long-range drones hit an oil facility in Tyumen, while attacks also targeted logistics tied to the Crimean Bridge, as Zelensky warns of more “massive” strikes. Diplomacy vs. Battlefield: A Kremlin aide said Moscow expects “victory,” not fulfillment of Anchorage-style agreements, signaling skepticism toward any deal timeline. EU Sanctions and Politics: Progressive Bulgaria’s floor leader urged against sanctions that hurt Europe more than Russia, while EU leaders extend Russia sanctions for another year amid calls for tougher measures. Shadow Fleet Crackdown: German and French lawmakers push to tighten control and detention of Russia’s “shadow fleet” tankers used to evade sanctions. Filipinos Freed: Twenty-four overseas Filipino workers returned home after nine months in Russia, with authorities saying illegal recruiters and missing paperwork were involved. Moscow Security and War Pressure: Russia also moved to protect naval assets with anti-drone netting in the Baltic and warned against spreading conscription “fake reports” in Penza.

Ukraine War Update: Zelensky says Russia fired nearly 2,200 attack drones, 1,800 guided aerial bombs and 87 missiles at Ukraine over the week, with strikes killing and injuring civilians in Zaporizhzhia and Poltava. Crimea & Deep Strikes: Ukraine drones hit Crimea, killing four and wounding 28, while Zelensky also claims a long-range strike on a Tyumen oil facility and hits on logistics near the Crimean Bridge. Frontline Losses: Ukraine’s General Staff reports Russia lost about 1,290 troops in a day, alongside tanks and artillery. Kremlin Messaging: A Kremlin aide says the West is “mistaken” and that Russia is not waiting for Anchorage-style agreements—only for “victory.” Military Politics: Russia is expanding political commissars/political officers in the armed forces. Energy & Sanctions Reality: Despite attacks, Russia’s oil exports are said to be at record highs, and fuel shortages are spreading in parts of Russia. Migrant Returns: 24 Filipino workers released after nine months in Russia arrived in Manila after Marcos raised their case with Putin. Regional Deals: RDIF and Vietnam’s SCIC plan to boost investment ties, while Malaysia’s PM says Russia and Turkmenistan will back long-term energy supplies.

Ukraine War & Strikes: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says drones hit a major oil refinery in Russia’s Tyumen region, over 2,000 km away, and that new long-range drones can reach 3,000 km; Russia says air defenses repelled the attack and evacuated staff. Frontline Civilian Impact: Russian bombs hit an apartment building in Kharkiv, killing at least one and wounding nine, including a child; strikes also hit Sumy’s outskirts and Zaporizhzhia, with multiple deaths and injuries reported. Belarus Signal Support: Zelenskyy warns Belarus has time to dismantle signal relay equipment in Gomel and Brest that he says helps guide Russian drone strikes, and claims Belarus-to-Russia petrol flows have surged. Diplomacy & Releases: Philippines President Marcos says 24 Filipinos detained in Siberia will be repatriated after he raised the case with Putin; the first batch lands in Manila early Sunday. EU Divisions: EU leaders remain split on whether to open a dialogue with Russia, with disagreements spilling into budget talks. Domestic Security: A knife attack at a Krasnodar shopping mall killed one woman and injured several others; the suspect is in custody. Energy & Economy: The Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14.25%, citing inflation risks tied to war spending and a fuel crunch linked to drone strikes.

Moscow Refinery Fallout: Ukraine’s drone strike near the Kremlin damaged a Moscow-area refinery and sparked fires and destruction, with an 8-year-old reported killed in the Moscow region. War Ledger: Ukraine’s General Staff says Russia lost about 1,240 troops, 1 tank and 88 artillery systems in the past day, bringing total losses since Feb. 2022 to about 1,390,660. EU Sanctions & Diplomacy: EU leaders agreed to extend Russia sanctions for 12 months and set up a new EU-to-Kremlin communication channel, but the move exposed deep splits among member states over whether to talk while fighting continues. Central Bank View: Russia’s central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina warned Middle East conflict drags inflation risk, saying those risks would ease if the conflict ends. Energy Deals Abroad: Malaysia’s PM Anwar said talks with Russia and Turkmenistan could secure oil, gas and diesel supplies for at least 20 years, while Petronas expands Turkmen gas blocks. People Caught in the Middle: Philippines President Marcos says 24 Filipinos detained in Siberia after illegal recruitment schemes will be repatriated after nine months. Hybrid Tensions: Zelenskyy warned Belarus to remove relay equipment aiding Russian attacks, as Medvedev escalated rhetoric on “no rules” for Kiev amid rising strikes.

Russia-ASEAN Summit: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. returned to Manila after a “very productive” Kazan visit, co-chairing the 35th ASEAN-Russia commemorative summit with Vladimir Putin and highlighting energy, food security, cyber and counter-terror cooperation; leaders adopted the Kazan Declaration and other roadmap documents. Ukraine War & Diplomacy: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia is ready to resume contacts with Europe “without ultimatums,” while Ukraine’s Zelenskyy warned Belarus to remove Russian-used signaling equipment or Kyiv would act. Moscow Under Pressure: Ukraine’s deep strikes hit a Moscow-area oil refinery, sparking major fires and renewed fuel worries, as Russia vowed regular “massive group strikes” in retaliation. Economy Watch: The Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14.25% but signaled a cautious pace for further easing amid war-linked budget strain. Philippines Detentions: Putin ordered the release and repatriation of 24 Filipinos detained in Russia. EU Split Over Talks: EU leaders debated opening a direct diplomatic channel with Moscow, with divisions spilling into sanctions and negotiation mandates.

ASEAN-Russia Summit in Kazan: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. wrapped up a “very productive” two-day visit, co-chairing the 35th ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit with Vladimir Putin and backing a roadmap for deeper ties across security, energy, trade and people-to-people links. Energy talks: Marcos said there’s no firm oil deal yet, but Russia is “very open” to expanding petroleum supplies and building a more structured system for Manila. Detentions resolved: Marcos also announced 24 Filipinos detained in Russia will be released and repatriated after nine months. War and retaliation: Russia’s Lavrov vowed regular large-scale strikes after a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, while Ukraine reported intercepting 79 of 90 drones in a fresh overnight raid. EU sanctions: EU leaders agreed to extend Russia sanctions for a full year, signaling tighter pressure on Moscow. Espionage case: A Russian court upheld a 15-year sentence for a Romanian man accused of spying for Ukraine by mapping air-defense sites near Sochi. Local pressure: Russia’s anti-monopoly watchdog opened inquiries into Moscow gas stations over possible price gouging amid fuel strain. Tech and media: At an SCO forum, Russian officials discussed de-anonymization online to curb manipulation and scams.

Ukraine War Escalation: Ukraine hit Moscow’s oil refinery for a second time in a week with a major drone assault, sending black smoke over the Kapotnya district, injuring 17 people, and disrupting flights as Russia said it shot down 555 drones nationwide (180 near Moscow); Energy & Prices: the refinery damage adds pressure to an already tight fuel situation, while Rosstat reported gasoline up 1% in the week to June 15 and weekly inflation at 0.15%; Diplomacy & Sanctions: the G7 pledged more air defenses and tougher sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas, and the EU is quietly seeking a communication channel with Moscow; Regional Pivot (ASEAN): Russia and ASEAN adopted the Kazan Declaration, expanding security, maritime cooperation, cyber and tech ties, plus a 2026-2030 action plan; Local Controls: Russia says migrant restrictions are now in effect across 52 regions, tightening labor access and raising costs for businesses; US Warning: the US Embassy in Moscow issued its first formal drone-strike security alert to Americans in Russia.

Russia-Ukraine War Escalation: Ukraine launched what Russia called its biggest drone attack on Moscow yet, with nearly 200 drones reportedly hitting targets around the capital and disrupting flights; Russian officials said air defenses intercepted hundreds of drones nationwide, while the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya was struck again and thick smoke spread over the city. Retaliation and Cross-Strikes: Hours after Zelenskiy spoke with US President Donald Trump and Macron, Russia hit Kyiv with missiles as Ukraine struck back at Russian energy assets, deepening the fuel crunch. ASEAN-Russia Summit in Kazan: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used the Russia-ASEAN commemorative summit to push stronger maritime security, counterterrorism, and economic ties, while also signaling more direct tourism links as airlines seek approvals for Russia-Philippines routes. Defense and Industry: Russia is in talks to induct India’s BrahMos missile and boost production, as Moscow seeks to expand its strike capabilities. Diplomacy: Russia welcomed a US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict, saying all sides must prevent escalation. Economy Under Strain: Bloomberg Economics reports Russia is leaning more on expensive domestic borrowing to fund the war as sanctions cut off foreign financing.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Kazan: Vladimir Putin met Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim at the ASEAN-Russia summit, touting growing trade (+12.9% in 2025) and pushing deeper energy, science and education ties, while Anwar thanked Russia for backing energy cooperation and said visa liberalisation talks are nearing completion. Philippines-Russia Labor Talks: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. arrived in Kazan for the ASEAN-Russia commemorative summit and planned talks with Putin, with Manila seeking a labor cooperation deal to better protect Filipinos working in Russia. Ukraine War at the Center of G7: At the G7 in Evian, leaders pledged more air-defense support and energy help for Ukraine and agreed to tighten sanctions on Russia; Trump also signaled he wants Russia to “make a deal,” while expecting European help on Iran and Strait of Hormuz shipping. Sanctions and Deportation Crackdown: Switzerland expanded sanctions against Russia over forced deportation and “Russification” of Ukrainian children, adding officials and youth-program figures. Moscow Drone Curfew: Starting June 20, Russia will restrict light and ultralight aircraft and civilian drones across Moscow and nearby regions, citing recent strikes. War Toll Claims: Ukraine’s General Staff said Russia lost 1,260 soldiers and seven tanks in the past 24 hours.