AGP Executive Report

Starlink Push for Deep Strikes: Zelenskyy asked Trump to secure Elon Musk’s permission for Ukraine to use Starlink to guide drones inside Russia, aiming at mobile ballistic missile launchers—an alternative as Patriot interceptors run low. Ukraine Hits Russia’s Supply Chain: Ukraine struck logistics hubs in Sarapul, Kazan and Volgograd, plus a Krasnodar maritime terminal and the Volgograd Lukoil refinery; Russia also reported drone/strike damage and fires in Volgograd and Kyiv region. “Russia’s Amazon” Under Fire: Wildberries warehouses have become a repeated target, with Kyiv alleging drone-part storage; Russia says the company denies the claims. Armenia-Railway Rift: Moscow rejected Yerevan’s push for changes and extra payments over the South Caucasus Railway, warning of reciprocity retaliation; Pashinyan floated arbitration and billions in demands. Mali Civilian Deaths: HRW says Russia-linked Africa Corps airstrikes in Kyrnia, Mali, killed eight civilians, including three children. India War-Return Case: India’s Supreme Court ordered the MEA to appoint a nodal officer, run DNA matching, and help families seek compensation for Indians allegedly duped into fighting in Russia-Ukraine. Sanctions and Tariffs: A US Russia sanctions bill faces pushback in Congress over a provision that could trigger 100% tariffs on major Russian oil/gas buyers and alleged sanctions-evasion partners. Tech and Security: Russia designated Telegram founder Pavel Durov a “terrorist” and “extremist,” tightening pressure on the platform. Sports Ban: IIHF barred Russia from four 2027 tournaments.

Ukraine War Escalation: President Zelenskyy says preliminary findings point to Russia using a North Korean ballistic missile in the Radushne strike that killed a family of 10, as Kyiv urges more air-defense interceptors. Cross-Border Tensions: Poland reports a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile exploded in its territory, leaving a crater and prompting NATO fighter jets to scramble. Sanctions Pressure: The US Treasury targets Iran-linked Mahan Air support networks across China, India and Russia, aiming to cut logistics and financial links to the IRGC. Fuel Market Controls: Russia extends its full gasoline and diesel export ban through Jan. 31, 2027, citing domestic supply stability. Regional Politics: Russia’s economic minister rejects Armenia’s demand for extra South Caucasus Railway payments, saying Moscow invested over 30 billion rubles and expects compensation only if terms are changed. Tech Crackdown: Russia adds Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov to its terrorism and extremism list, while Telegram faces legal action in Australia. Sports: The IIHF bars Russia from four major ice hockey tournaments in 2027. Aviation Investment: Russia plans to allocate over 250 billion rubles to develop its aviation industry, including deliveries of aircraft and helicopters.

Poland-NATO Flashpoint: A Russian missile blamed for a crater in eastern Poland has triggered NATO jet scrambles and a fresh Patriot-aid debate, as Warsaw says it was ready to shoot down the projectile if it continued. Ukraine Air War: Russia’s overnight barrage across Ukraine killed at least eight to nine people, including children, with Kyiv and Lviv hit hard and Zelenskyy warning that allied air-defense delays are costing lives. Telegram Crackdown: Russia added Telegram founder Pavel Durov to its “terrorists and extremists” list and sought his arrest over claims the platform enabled Ukrainian recruitment and sabotage. US Sanctions Push: The US Senate advanced the Lindsey Graham Russia-Iran sanctions package, with major tariff threats aimed at buyers of Russian oil and gas, including China and India. Energy Pressure on Moscow: Ukraine’s drone campaign is reported to have knocked out more than 30% of Russia’s refining capacity at points, straining fuel supplies. Armenia-Russia Friction: Armenia signaled it may seek court action and demand fees tied to the South Caucasus Railway concession, deepening the strain with Moscow. Defense Industry Moves: Russia says it has begun mass production of the Banderol cruise missile and is marketing new RVV-SDM air-to-air missiles for the Su-57E.

Telegram Crackdown: Russia’s FSB charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorism and issued an international arrest warrant, alleging the app hosted Ukrainian recruitment and sabotage channels; the move follows a fresh legal push by Australia’s eSafety regulator over terrorist content on Telegram. Kyiv Under Ballistic Fire: Russia launched ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early Thursday after Zelensky warned of a “massive attack,” with Poland scrambling fighter jets as air-raid alerts spread. US Sanctions Momentum: The US Senate advanced a major Russia sanctions package tied to late Sen. Lindsey Graham, with Trump backing expanded tariff pressure that would also target Iran—raising stakes for energy buyers. EU Tightens the Net: The EU rolled out its 21st sanctions package, adding more banks and shadow-fleet-linked shipping while leaving some gaps, including seafood. War Economy Pressure: Ukraine’s drone campaign hit Wildberries logistics in Russia, pushing Moscow to consider support for the retailer as banks brace for fallout. Far East Borders Signaling: Russia plans to name a Lesser Kurils island after Soviet spy Richard Sorge, reinforcing its claim of fixed control over the disputed territory.

Telegram Crackdown: Russia’s FSB charged Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorism and issued an international wanted notice, alleging Telegram failed to remove chats and bots used by Ukrainian intelligence and extremist groups; Telegram responded with a defiant gesture as the case raises fresh questions about Moscow’s push to control digital communication. Ukraine Deep Strikes: Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Perm oil refinery (Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez) and struck across multiple regions, while Wildberries warehouses in Ryazan were evacuated after fires. Fuel Crunch Eases: Russia’s two-month fuel crisis is stabilizing as refineries restart and some regions lift sales limits, though shortages remain in parts of Siberia. Sanctions Pressure in Washington: The US Senate advanced a Lindsey Graham-linked Russia sanctions bill with tough energy-related tools, putting major oil buyers like India at risk of steep tariff hikes. EW vs Starlink: Russia’s growing electronic warfare arsenal is being framed as a serious threat to Starlink, as Moscow tests systems to disrupt satellite coverage. Arctic Tourism Push: Russia is marketing North Pole travel via nuclear icebreakers, betting on a tourism boom even as environmental and geopolitical concerns grow.

US Sanctions Push: The U.S. Senate voted 86-12 to advance the Lindsey Graham–backed Russia and Iran sanctions bill, a move Zelensky watched from the gallery after meeting Trump at the White House; the package targets Russia’s war financing and expands tariff power tied to Russian energy buyers. Ukraine War Strategy: Ukraine’s acting defense minister says Kyiv can’t fight “punch for punch” and must use “asymmetric” tactics and tight logistics. Diplomacy and Patriot Production: Zelensky confirmed a “good meeting” with Trump focused on air defenses, including renewed talk of Patriot interceptor production licenses, plus “reinvigorated” peace efforts. Cross-Border Attacks: Drones struck a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region, killing three and injuring 19, as Moscow again blamed Ukraine for bus attacks. Russia’s War Funding: Ukrainian intelligence claims the Kremlin is masking budget shortfalls through state-bank purchases of government bonds backed by the central bank—effectively fueling money creation. Information Front: A report says Russian intelligence has targeted Hungarian university students for long-term recruitment across the EU. Local Life Under Pressure: In Volgograd, fuel sales limits were lifted after earlier shortages.

Ukraine-US Diplomacy: Zelenskyy arrived at the White House for closed-door talks with Donald Trump, pushing anti-ballistic defense and strategic cooperation as Russia intensifies strikes. Black Sea Pressure: Russia says it hit port and logistics targets used for Ukrainian military cargo, including strikes tied to Nikolaev and maritime vessels in the Black Sea. Drone Exchange, Civilian Impact: Overnight drone attacks left at least 25 injured, including 19 in Belgorod after a bus strike, while Moscow reported intercepting hundreds of drones. War Draft Backlash: In Penza region’s Bashmakovo, residents formed a civilian patrol after reports of recruiters detaining and coercing men into contracts. AI Gap Admitted: Kremlin spokesman Peskov conceded Russia lags the US and China in AI, while insisting Moscow can close the gap. EU Sanctions on Georgia: The EU extended sanctions to Inter RAO, indirectly tied to Georgia’s Telasi power supplier, raising pressure on Tbilisi’s Western alignment. US Sanctions Push: A bipartisan US Senate deal would let Trump add restrictions on major buyers of Russian energy and on Iran. Caspian Escalation: Russia accused Ukraine of attacks beyond borders, citing claims involving Germany, Kazakhstan and an Iranian vessel in the Caspian. Migration Tightening: Russia tightened rules for labor migrants, raising costs and requiring income guarantees, with faster exit deadlines for noncompliance.

Ukraine War: Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles early Sunday, sparking fires and injuring civilians, while Ukraine reported a fresh barrage of 7 ballistic missiles and 136 drones overnight; in the south, drone attacks killed at least five in Rostov-on-Don, including a child, as both sides traded claims of targeting and air-defense interceptions. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Zelensky is set to meet Donald Trump at the White House to press for US support as a US Senate vote on a new Russia sanctions bill nears, with lawmakers also inviting all 100 senators to Zelensky’s Washington stop. Iran Link: Trump said any Russian support to Iran is “very unimpactful” and that he’ll ask Putin about Zelensky’s claims that Moscow provided satellite help for strikes on US bases. North Korea Military Ties: Russia and North Korea are nearing completion of a first road crossing, while Zelensky and others warn of a possible 30,000-troop North Korean surge to bolster Russia’s war effort. Information & Security: Russia detained a Khabarovsk man accused of spying for New Zealand’s intelligence service, and a UK-focused report says hostile actors are “poisoning” AI systems to spread disinformation. Economy & Daily Life: Russia’s remittance provider Golden Crown stopped serving Georgia after EU-linked restrictions, and reports say vodka shortages are emerging in occupied Crimea amid disrupted logistics. Regional Politics: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev urged an immediate ceasefire and called for a return to the “Istanbul Formula 2.0,” while Saudi Arabia marked 100 years of ties with Russia in Moscow.

Ukraine War Deep Strikes: Ukraine says it hit an export terminal in Rostov and oil facilities in Yaroslavl and Udmurtia, while Russia reports drone and missile attacks across southern regions including Rostov-on-Don and Belgorod, with civilians killed and injured. Black Sea & Shipping Pressure: Ukraine pushed for an emergency UN Security Council response over Russia’s strikes on civilian vessels, as both sides trade accusations over attacks on maritime traffic. Iran Tensions: Ukraine’s Sybiha rejected Iran’s “victim” framing after a Caspian Sea incident, saying Tehran fuels Russia’s war with weapons; Zelensky also argues Iran is already a participant. Diplomacy Talk: Russia’s Foreign Ministry says it’s ready to resolve the conflict using the “Anchorage” understandings, while Kazakhstan’s Tokayev urges a freeze. EU Sanctions Politics: The FT reports Greece’s LNG carve-out is prompting Brussels to rethink how sanctions packages are approved. Moscow & Economy: Bank of Russia rate-cut talk and POS loan data show Moscow leading retail lending amounts. Other Moscow-Relevant News: Russia canceled the St Petersburg Navy Day parade again due to drone threats; and on Mount Elbrus, authorities say five foreign climbers died after severe weather.

Ukraine War Updates: Kyiv faced ballistic missile attacks while drones hit multiple regions, killing civilians including in Chernihiv (a supermarket strike) and Zaporizhzhia (a glide bomb), as Russia also reported deaths from a drone strike in Horlivka. Border Strikes: Belgorod saw a major overnight drone attack with 12 injured, including two children, and fires across apartments and parked cars. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Ukraine and the US discussed an air ceasefire proposal ahead of a Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, while the Kremlin said it was premature to comment. EU Sanctions & Finance: The EU sanctioned crypto exchange HTX as part of a push to choke Russia’s financial workarounds, and adopted its 21st sanctions package aimed at the war economy. North Korea Link: Zelenskyy again claimed Russia is seeking 30,000 more North Korean troops, as Russia and Pyongyang deepen military ties. Domestic Politics & Economy: Putin met outgoing Duma lawmakers, while the Bank of Russia cut its 2026 growth forecast and raised inflation expectations amid fuel and supply shocks. Maritime Tensions: Russia warned hostile acts against its merchant ships would be treated as piracy, as strikes and shipping disruptions continue around the Black Sea.

North Korea Troops: Zelenskyy says Russia is preparing to receive 30,000 more North Korean soldiers in Voronezh and additional ballistic missile launchers, warning Moscow is effectively training Pyongyang for wider threats. Ukraine War Update: Russia launched a fresh wave including ballistic missiles and 136 drones, with reports of strikes hitting Kyiv and multiple regions; Kyiv says Russia used nearly 1,700 drones and 95 missiles over the past week. Drone-Linked Strikes: Moscow claims it hit Ukraine’s drone production and storage sites in Kyiv and port infrastructure in Odesa, while Ukraine reports fires and damage from the attacks. Naval Shift: Russia says it has started building its first uncrewed anti-submarine surface vessel and formed an unmanned systems regiment in the Northern Fleet. Romania Airspace: Romania summoned Russia’s ambassador after a third drone was shot down by an F-16 in NATO airspace. Local Fallout: Lithuania plans tighter sanctions on Russian and Belarusian citizens, including limits tied to support for aggression. Elbrus Tragedy: Five Bosnian climbers are confirmed dead and five more feared dead after a storm on Mount Elbrus, as Russian rescuers continue recovery. Diplomacy & Trade: Malaysia’s king-to-king diplomacy is credited with boosting Russia-Malaysia ties ahead of the 60th anniversary.

Ukraine War Casualties: Moscow-installed officials in Zaporizhzhia say a Ukrainian strike on tourist resorts killed 14 people, including four children, while Ukraine’s Sumy region reported a drone attack killing three. Cross-Border Strikes: Both sides reported fresh exchanges of missile and drone attacks, with Russia also claiming deaths in other border areas. North Korea Link: Zelenskyy says Russia is preparing to receive another 30,000 North Korean troops, with preparations underway in Russia’s Voronezh region, warning this could spread the threat across Asia. Iran Satellite Intel Accusations: Zelenskyy alleges Russian satellite surveillance of US and Gulf bases is being passed to Iran to improve strike accuracy, and says Ukraine will share the information with partners. Fuel Policy: Russia will extend its gasoline export ban through end-2026, while diesel export limits are set to be lifted once the domestic market stabilizes. Finance & Crypto: Sberbank plans crypto custody and trading infrastructure for a Dec. 1 launch, aligning with Russia’s new crypto rules taking effect Sept. 1. Regional Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s Tokayev urged considering a freeze and returning to an “Istanbul Formula 2.0” path, while rejecting mediation.

UN Rights Vote: UN human rights chief Volker Türk won a second term, reappointed by the General Assembly despite U.S., Russia and Israel opposition. Ukraine-Russia War: Moscow-installed officials say 11 people, including four children, were killed in attacks on holiday camps in Zaporizhzhia, while Russia and Ukraine traded drone and missile strikes across multiple regions. Deep Strikes & Drones: Ukraine claimed long-range hits in the Caspian Sea, targeting a Russian warship and vessels tied to Iran-linked military cargo, as well as strikes on Russian energy and logistics sites. Wildberries Under Fire: Ukrainian drones prompted Wildberries to evacuate staff at a logistics hub in Yekaterinburg; operations later resumed, with similar attacks reported across Russia. Energy Disruption: A drone attack sparked a fire at the Tyumen oil refinery, adding to fears of further strain on fuel supplies. EU Sanctions: The EU moved ahead with a 21st Russia package, including measures affecting shadow-fleet oil and crypto-linked activity. Central Bank Watch: Russia’s Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 14% while warning inflation risks remain elevated. Regional Politics: Putin met Kazakhstan’s Tokayev in Omsk, calling ties strategic and highlighting transport and logistics cooperation.

EU Sanctions Escalate: The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package, extending crypto and finance curbs to more networks and platforms, including HTX, while also adding new crypto-related transaction bans tied to Russia-linked “shadow” channels. China Retaliates: China then slapped export controls on 14 EU entities in a tit-for-tat move over EU Russia sanctions, targeting dual-use items and specific drone and industrial firms. Ukraine Strikes Deep Into Russia: Ukrainian drones hit logistics and energy sites in Belgorod, with reports of fires at warehouses and damage to infrastructure. Engels Air Base Fire: Overnight, a major fire broke out at Engels-2, home to Russia’s heavy bombers, with the cause still unclear. War, Diplomacy, and Iran: Trump warned China and Russia not to arm Iran, while Moscow says it will wait for new US peace proposals but keep fighting without concrete prospects. Security and Rights: UN human rights chief Volker Türk won a second term at the UN despite US, Russia and Israel opposition; rights groups also demanded Russia reveal the whereabouts of Crimean political prisoner Serhiy Likhomanov. Cyber Threat: UK-linked agencies warned of a Russian-backed “zero-click” Zimbra phishing campaign targeting Western organizations.

Central Bank Watch: Russia’s central bank raised its 2026 average key rate forecast to 14.5–14.6% while projecting inflation at 6.0–7.0% and keeping an eye on tighter policy if budget deficits widen. Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia: Zelensky confirmed hits on a key Kirov military enterprise and a faraway oil facility, as Ukraine’s SBU reported overnight attacks on refineries, pumping stations, and radar in Russia and occupied Crimea. Missile Toll in Kyiv Region: A ballistic strike on Kyiv region killed 10 and injured about 100, with prosecutors opening war-crime and negligence cases tied to the event’s security. “Russia’s Amazon” Under Fire: Wildberries warehouses near St Petersburg and in Crimea were hit again, adding to a week of drone attacks that Kyiv says target logistics for drone components. EU Sanctions Tighten Crypto: The EU adopted its 21st package, extending transaction bans to 14 crypto platforms (including Belarus-based ones) and adding more bank and asset restrictions. US Tariffs Reach Russia: The US introduced new forced-labour-linked tariffs, listing Russia for a 12.5% rate. Black Sea Shipping Warning: Moscow warned its Black Sea waters are unsafe for navigation amid drone and marine-vehicle threats.

Wildberries Under Fire: Drone strikes hit Wildberries logistics hubs in Russian-occupied Crimea (Simferopol) and the city of Tver, with fires reported and damage still unclear as Ukraine has not officially commented. Fuel Crisis Deepens: Sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and depots are squeezing supply and pushing prices, with Putin calling the deficit “non-critical” while officials cite partial refinery shutdowns after hits. EU Sanctions Escalate: The EU agreed and formally moved on its 21st Russia package, adding 218 listings and targeting banks, crypto platforms, shadow-fleet shipping, and energy assets, while Greece won an LNG shipping carve-out. Black Sea Shipping Disrupted: Ukraine says the grain corridor has seen a rare halt as ship operators suspend traffic amid attacks and seafarer deaths; Russia warns of danger to navigation. US-Russia Diplomacy in Manila: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Lavrov in rare direct talks, urging an end to the war while Russia warned against “unacceptable” arms deliveries. War at Home: Zelensky says Putin’s inner circle is blaming Vlad for battlefield failures and that Russia is preparing for mobilization and possible unrest. EU Targets Depleted Uranium Claims: Ukraine’s SSU says it documented new depleted-uranium cases in Geran-2 drone attacks on Chernihiv.